Anomaly Detection

Anomaly Detection flags prediction markets that are behaving in ways the order flow can't easily explain — most importantly, **markets that moved a lot in the last 24 hours without the volume to justify it.** When price lurches but money doesn't, somebody usually knows something the tape hasn't priced in yet. This page is where Predite surfaces those mismatches so you can investigate before the rest of the market catches up.

It lives at **/dashboard/anomalies** and sits inside the "Suspicious Activity" hub alongside the **Insider** tab. Both tabs answer the same underlying question — *where is information asymmetry hiding?* — but from different angles. Insider works bottom-up from individual wallets and trades; Anomaly Detection works top-down from market-level price-vs-volume behavior.

## What It Detects

Predite snapshots every tracked Polymarket and Kalshi market every 15 minutes (price, volume, and metadata land in an internal history table). Anomaly Detection reads those snapshots and looks for three distinct patterns.

### 1. Big moves without justifying volume

This is the headline signal. For each market, Predite compares the **current YES price** to the price roughly 24 hours ago, and the current volume to the volume back then.

The minimum move to even be considered is **5 percentage points (pp)** over 24h. Anything quieter is noise.

### 2. Unusual volume spikes

The same snapshot machinery catches the inverse case: volume surging out of proportion to the price reaction, or volume arriving in a market that's normally dead. A thinly-traded political or sports market that suddenly takes on serious size — especially ahead of a scheduled event — is worth a look even if price hasn't fully repriced yet. Volume often moves *before* price when a few wallets are accumulating quietly.

### 3. Coordinated cluster activity

The third pattern is structural rather than statistical: **multiple brand-new wallets piling into the same market, in the same direction, within a tight window.** One new wallet taking a big position is a data point. Three or more previously-unseen wallets all buying YES on the same obscure market within an hour is a *pattern* — and it's the single hardest thing for a market to price, because each wallet looks small in isolation.

Cluster detection is surfaced on the **Insider** tab of this hub (it's wallet-level by nature), but it's the natural companion to the price/volume anomalies on this page. When you see a market flagged here for an unjustified move, flip to Insider and check whether a wallet cluster is behind it. That combination — anomalous price action *plus* coordinated new money — is the strongest signal the platform produces.

## The Anomaly Score

Every flagged market gets an **anomaly score**, shown as a gold `SCORE` badge on its card. The math is deliberately simple and transparent:

``` score = price_change_pp / sqrt(volume_change_pct + 1) ```

In plain terms: **a lot of price movement divided by how much volume showed up to cause it.**

A market must clear a score of **1.5** to appear on the page. Cards are sorted highest-score-first, and the page shows the top 30 anomalies at any time. The score is a *ranking and triage tool*, not a probability of wrongdoing — treat 4.2 as "look at this first," not "this is four times more illegal than a 1.0."

## Severity Levels

When you combine the price/volume view here with the wallet flags on the Insider tab, anomalies fall into three severity bands. The Insider tab color-codes them directly:

1. **Critical (red).** The clearest cases — large positions from brand-new wallets, or confirmed coordinated cluster entries (3+ new wallets, same direction, combined into one flag). Risk scores of 60/100 and up. These jump the queue. 2. **High (amber).** Strong single-signal anomalies: a disproportionately large trade from a low-history wallet, or a sharp move on thin volume. Risk scores roughly 40–59. 3. **Medium (indigo).** Worth watching but easily innocent — unusual timing, modest size mismatches, single-indicator flags. Risk scores under 40.

On the **Anomalies** page itself, the gold `SCORE` badge is your severity proxy: the higher the score, the more the price action diverges from what volume can explain. Use score for market-level triage and the Insider severity colors when you drill into who is behind a move.

## Reading an Anomaly Card

Each card on /dashboard/anomalies packs the essentials into one row:

If the page shows a green "No anomalies detected" state, that's genuinely good news: nothing moved more than 5pp in the last 24h without matching volume. The list refreshes automatically about every 5 minutes, and the underlying snapshots update every 15.

## How to Use It, Step by Step

1. **Open /dashboard/anomalies** and scan the top three to five cards. They're already sorted by score, so the most divergent markets are at the top. 2. **Read the volume change next to the move.** A 15pp move with `vol +3%` is far more interesting than a 15pp move with `vol +45%`. You want movement *without* the money. 3. **Click into the market.** The Market Detail page shows the full price chart, recent trades, AI probability estimate, and any news context. Ask the obvious question first: **is there public news that explains this?** Check the News & Calendar feature in the same session. 4. **Flip to the Insider tab.** See whether the same market shows wallet-level flags — a new-wallet large trade, or a coordinated cluster. Market anomaly + wallet cluster on the same market is your highest-confidence setup. 5. **Form a thesis, then size it.** If you believe the move reflects real information not yet public, the anomaly is a *lead*, not a trade. Decide which side the informed money is on, then size the position with the Kelly Calculator and check execution cost with the Slippage Simulator before you click buy. 6. **Log it.** Whether you act or pass, note it in your Trade Journal. Anomaly-driven trades are a distinct strategy and you'll want to measure their hit rate separately.

## Tips

## Gotchas

## Plans & Access

Anomaly Detection is a **Pro feature**. It's included on **Pro ($59/mo)** and **Bot ($99/mo)**, and is not available on **Starter ($29/mo)**. The companion Insider tab carries the same Pro+ requirement.

Bot-plan users get an extra layer that overlaps conceptually but is separate in practice: an automated trade-monitoring system watches *your own* live bot executions and notifies you when a bot fires a trade far outside its normal size or pattern. That's about protecting your automation, not scouting the market — but if you run bots, it's the third pillar of "nothing weird is happening without me knowing." Live trading and bots require the **Bot plan**.

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