Insider Detection: Flagging Unusual Patterns
Anomaly patterns that flag suspicious trading
The Insider Detection tool flags trading patterns that may indicate informed trading — that is, trades placed by participants who appear to have non-public information. It does NOT confirm insider trading; it surfaces anomalies that deserve investigation.
What It Actually Looks At
The detector reads the recent large-trade feed and scores each trade against four signals. It is deliberately simple, and knowing exactly what it can and cannot see is what makes it useful.
Signal 1 — A wallet with almost no history taking size. A wallet with two or fewer trades in the scanned window putting $10,000 or more into a single position. If that position is $50,000 or more, the score climbs further.
Signal 2 — Conviction at an extreme price. Buying above 85¢, where the market already treats the outcome as close to settled. Paying near the ceiling means expecting certainty, not value.
Signal 3 — Size out of proportion to history. $25,000 or more from a wallet with three or fewer trades in the window.
Signal 4 — Odd hours. $15,000 or more between 02:00 and 06:00 UTC, when the book is thin and a large order stands out.
A trade is only flagged when it scores at least 30 and matches at least two signals. One signal alone is never enough — that threshold is what keeps the page from filling with ordinary large trades.
Separately, the detector looks for a coordinated entry: three or more wallets with almost no history, each putting in $5,000 or more, landing in the same market and mostly on the same side. That pattern is flagged as critical on its own.
What It Cannot See
This matters more than the signal list, because the gap is where wrong conclusions come from:
- •It does not know a wallet's age. "New wallet" here means *few trades in the window we scanned*, not an address created last week. A veteran wallet that has been quiet looks identical to a fresh one.
- •It does not read the news. Nothing correlates a trade with a headline, so it cannot tell you a position was opened *before* an announcement. For that link, read the News & Calendar feed alongside the flag.
- •It does not cluster wallets. Addresses are never linked by funding source or timing; "coordinated" only means several low-history wallets hit the same market, which is suggestive and nothing more.
- •It does not know time-to-resolution. Late-stage front-running is not a signal it computes.
- •It runs on the same trade feed as the Whale Tracker. If that feed is degraded, the page gets quieter — not more accurate.
The tool surfaces trades worth a second look. Treat every flag as a question, never as an accusation or as a signal to copy.
Severity Levels
Severity comes from the score, not from a separate judgement:
- •🔴 Critical: score of 60 or more — or any coordinated entry, which is always critical.
- •🟠 High: score of 40 to 59.
- •🟡 Medium: score of 30 to 39, the entry threshold.
- •Anything below 30, or matching a single signal, is never flagged at all.
The page shows Critical and High by default. Use the severity filter to see Medium and Low.
How to Use Insider Flags
Do:
- •Investigate manually before acting. Read the market, check news feeds, look at the wallet's history.
- •Use flags as a tiebreaker, not a primary signal. "I was already considering this trade; insider flag pushes me to take it."
- •Treat flags as evidence of information asymmetry, not necessarily corruption. Many flags are legitimate informed traders.
Don't:
- •Blindly trade in the direction of the flagged wallet. They might be wrong. Insider trading also catches scams (people pretending to have information they don't).
- •Treat the flag as a guaranteed signal. Predite's false-positive rates are documented above for a reason.
- •Use this data to publicly accuse anyone of insider trading. The flags are statistical patterns, not evidence.
Privacy and Ethics
A note on what we do and don't share:
- •Predite does not publicly identify flagged wallets. We show the trade pattern and let you investigate.
- •We do not share insider flag data with Polymarket, Kalshi, or law enforcement. The flags are for your trading awareness.
- •We do not claim to detect actual insider trading. The flags are anomaly detection, not legal determination.
If you have evidence of actual insider trading (e.g., a tip-off), report it to the platform directly (Polymarket has compliance contact) or to the relevant securities regulator.